Predicción de quiebra bajo el modelo Z2 Altman en empresas del sector automotriz del cantón Cuenca en el periodo 2015-2020

Abstract

The objective of this research is to determine the probability of business bankruptcy in the automotive sector in the canton of Cuenca through the application of Altman's Z2-Score prediction model, along with establishing the classification of each company in the risk zone and identifying the determinants that influence the financial failure of the industry, in order to provide the entrepreneur with a preview of its financial situation for a rational decision making, for this purpose, financial information available and in force at the SuperCias (Superintendence of Companies, Securities and Insurance) was collected from a sample of 21 companies registered under ISIC code "G4510. 01" in the period 2015-2020. Among the main findings we can mention that on average the sector is in the safe zone, since 57% of the sample is in the solvency zone, while 29% in the gray zone and the remaining 14% in the insolvency zone. Additionally, with the application of an ordinal logistic regression model, it was determined that significant financial indicators directly or indirectly influence the probability of bankruptcy, in this case: leverage, acid test, asset tangibility, asset indebtedness, profitability, company size, financial leverage and current liquidity.