Modelo financiero para la predicción de la insolvencia mediante el uso del análisis discriminante múltiple en el sector de fabricación de prendas de vestir durante el periodo 2015-2019 en la ciudad de Cuenca

Abstract

The present research was developed with the objective of establishing the different levels of insolvency risk of the garment manufacturing sector of Cuenca city, for which multiple discriminant analysis was used as a bankruptcy prediction model, whose period of analysis was 2015-2019. With its application, it was possible to determine that the sector is healthy from the

financial point of view; however, the data show a downward trend of the Z- score, since more companies are being pigeonholed in the risk zone as the

years go by; In addition, it was concluded that micro-companies are the ones with the highest probability of bankruptcy; however, large companies, despite their size, show a less satisfactory performance, since in 4 of the 5 years analyzed they were located in the gray zone, which is not very encouraging considering that they represent 41% of the sector's sales. On the other hand, it was determined that the financial ratios related to liquidity and solvency are the most important when estimating business failure; at the same time, it was found that the companies that were positioned in the danger zone had liquidity ratios well below the five best companies that were identified after the analysis, which were in the safe zone every year.