Relación entre economía informal, crecimiento y desempleo. Análisis para economías desarrolladas y no desarrolladas para el periodo 1996 – 2015

Abstract

This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth, shadow economy, and unemployment for 69 countries of the world during the period 1996-2015 through the application of simultaneous equations in panel data. The results indicate the existence of bidirectionality between the 3 variables of interest, firstly, the shadow economy negatively affects economic growth and vice versa, then unemployment and economic growth show a negative bidirectional relationship and, finally, unemployment has a positive effect on the shadow economy and vice versa. The results are maintained even when performing the analysis by groups of developed and undeveloped countries according to the level of development, observing similar magnitudes of the effect of the shadow economy on economic growth. However, its effect on unemployment is greater in the group of developed economies in contrast to the undeveloped ones. With the inclusion of institutional variables, the previous relationships prevail and the relevance of adequate state functioning in developed countries with a lower informality size.