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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Aviles Añazco, Alex Manuel | - |
dc.contributor.author | Solera Solera, Abel | - |
dc.contributor.author | Paredes Arquiola,, Javier | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pedro Monzonís, María | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-10-19T17:39:47Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2018-10-19T17:39:47Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2018 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1573-1650, e0920-4741 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85034664137&origin=inward | - |
dc.description | Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply, incorporating probabilistic drought forecasts, which assists in making decisions regarding the satisfaction of consumptive, non-consumptive and environmental requirements under water scarcity conditions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the risk of failure in multiple stochastic scenarios, which incorporate probabilistic forecasts of drought events based on a Markov chains (MC) model using a recently developed drought index (DI). This methodology was tested in the Machangara river basin located in the south of Ecuador. Results were grouped in integrated satisfaction indexes of the system (DSIG). They demonstrated that the incorporation of probabilistic drought forecasts could better target the projections of simulation scenarios, with a view of obtaining realistic situations instead of optimistic projections that would lead to riskier decisions. Moreover, they contribute to more effective results in order to propose multiple alternatives for prevention and/or mitigation under drought conditions. | - |
dc.description.abstract | Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply, incorporating probabilistic drought forecasts, which assists in making decisions regarding the satisfaction of consumptive, non-consumptive and environmental requirements under water scarcity conditions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the risk of failure in multiple stochastic scenarios, which incorporate probabilistic forecasts of drought events based on a Markov chains (MC) model using a recently developed drought index (DI). This methodology was tested in the Machangara river basin located in the south of Ecuador. Results were grouped in integrated satisfaction indexes of the system (DSIG). They demonstrated that the incorporation of probabilistic drought forecasts could better target the projections of simulation scenarios, with a view of obtaining realistic situations instead of optimistic projections that would lead to riskier decisions. Moreover, they contribute to more effective results in order to propose multiple alternatives for prevention and/or mitigation under drought conditions. | - |
dc.language.iso | es_ES | - |
dc.source | Water Resources Management | - |
dc.subject | Probabilistic drought forecasts | - |
dc.subject | Risk assessment | - |
dc.subject | Simulation of stochastic scenarios | - |
dc.subject | Water resource systems management | - |
dc.title | Integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecasts. Case study: andean regulated river basin | - |
dc.type | ARTÍCULO | - |
dc.ucuenca.idautor | 0102247186 | - |
dc.ucuenca.idautor | 0000-0001-7464-3963 | - |
dc.ucuenca.idautor | 0000-0003-3198-2169 | - |
dc.ucuenca.idautor | 0000-0003-3276-9992 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s11269-017-1863-7 | - |
dc.ucuenca.version | Versión publicada | - |
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientounescoamplio | 05 - Ciencias Físicas, Ciencias Naturales, Matemáticas y Estadísticas | - |
dc.ucuenca.afiliacion | Aviles, A., Universidad de Cuenca, Departamento de Recursos Hídricos y Ciencias Ambientales, Cuenca, Ecuador; Aviles, A., Universidad de Cuenca, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Cuenca, Ecuador | - |
dc.ucuenca.afiliacion | Solera, A., Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, España | - |
dc.ucuenca.afiliacion | Paredes, J., Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, España | - |
dc.ucuenca.afiliacion | Pedro, M., Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, España | - |
dc.ucuenca.correspondencia | Aviles Añazco, Alex Manuel, alex.aviles@ucuenca.edu.ec | - |
dc.ucuenca.volumen | Volumen 32, número 4 | - |
dc.ucuenca.indicebibliografico | SCOPUS | - |
dc.ucuenca.factorimpacto | 2.987 | - |
dc.ucuenca.cuartil | Q1 | - |
dc.ucuenca.numerocitaciones | 0 | - |
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientofrascatiamplio | 1. Ciencias Naturales y Exactas | - |
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientofrascatiespecifico | 1.5 Ciencias de la Tierra y el Ambiente | - |
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientofrascatidetallado | 1.5.8 Ciencias del Medioambiente | - |
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientounescoespecifico | 052 - Medio Ambiente | - |
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientounescodetallado | 0521 - Ciencias Ambientales | - |
dc.ucuenca.urifuente | http://www.springeronline.com/journal/11269/about | - |
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