Estimación de la vulnerabilidad de los riesgos del cambio climático en una cuenca de montaña

Abstract

Climate change, accelerated by anthropogenic intervention due to the emission of greenhouse gases, has led society to be alert to its effects, especially with regard to water resources and the uses to which it is subjected like: water for human consumption, agricultural production, hydroelectric energy, to mention a few. For this reason in recent years actions have been taken to reduce the vulnerability of the population to these effects, however, it is vitally important to estimate vulnerability in terms of climate change scenarios, in order to be able to implement adaptation and mitigation actions to reduce the effects that that can be presented. It is for this reason that in the present degree work, a methodology was developed and implemented to achieve the estimation of the vulnerability of the risks of climate change in a mountain basin. A methodology, which is adaptable to different approaches, scenarios and available information was obtained; whose result is presented in a numeric scale in which a higher value represents a higher vulnerability level, this methodology was developed with a focus of help in the decision-making by the authorities, being a reliable tool for evaluation of the vulnerability to climate change. The study area chosen for the present work was the sub-basin of the Machángara, located in the south of Ecuador, which has limited information and is a clear example of the level of versatility that the methodology possesses, thus determining an average level of vulnerability in the largest part of its geographical extension, both in the current or base climate scenario and in the future climate scenario. In addition, important recommendations were determined that could contribute to a more detailed analysis of the vulnerability of climate change risks within the study area.