Análisis de sensibilidad de factores que influyen en la oferta y demanda de agua en escenarios futuros. Caso de estudio en una cuenca andina regulada

Abstract

Population growth, economic activity and competition for water among users are causing a high demand for water resources, coupled with the low availability of water as a result of changes in land use and the climate, make predict shortage periods that will affect humans and the ecosystems health. A number of studies have been carried out on hydrology and water resources with current scenarios in andean basins, however few studies have been carried out with future scenarios and still less analyzing the integral factors of future change that could influence the supply and a water system demand of an andean basin. For this reason, the importance of this research in the analysis of the sensitivity of changing factors that may be influencing the supply and water demand in future scenarios. Through the construction of scenarios with factors variation: population and demand, climate and land use, the focus of this study was applied in the Machangara river basin located to the south of Ecuador, for which several tools and evaluation models of water resources and statistical techniques for creation to future scenarios. The results obtained show that the crossing between supply and water demand on future presents water surpluses in most scenarios, however there are months like January and August that present deficits in several scenarios. In addition, the combination of scenarios provided a better insight into the importance of each factor in the water balance of the basin's water resources system. These results could be useful for formulating water management and planning measures with the aim of translating them into concrete decision-making actions to safeguard water security for current and future generations.