El impacto de la deuda externa pública sobre la inversión privada en Ecuador: un análisis de cointegración para el período 2000 - 2016

Abstract

Empirical studies have determined that public debt and private investment have two relationships: i) the existence of a crowding-out effect between public and private debt, that is, the execution of the former stimulates the displacement of the latter, and ii) the existence of a crowding-in effect, that is, by contracting the public debt, gives rise to positive externalities for the execution of private investment. This paper aims to analyze the effect of public external debt on private investment in Ecuador, and thus determine how the management of economic policy influences private investment in the short and long term. The methodology was applied of Engle Granger (1987); Autoregressive models of distributed lags (ARDL) and the Johansen cointegration test (1992) for the quarterly period of 2000: I - 2016: IV, The results of the different specifications indicate that private investment is displaced by public external debt in the short term, while in the long run it shows that there is a complementary relationship between these variables