Proyección espacial de la demanda en la Empresa Eléctrica Regional Centro Sur C.A. mediante el método de simulación espacio-temporal

Abstract

The present study presents the process of a spatial load forecasting model based in a regular grid base, applied in response to a medium and long range planning problem of the Electrical Distribution System of the Regional Electric Company Centro Sur CA. The proposed forecast model consists of three main modules that correspond to the global, temporal, and spatial module. The global module controls the global development that is the sum of all developments in the region for every time step. The spatial module is pattern recognition used to identify a match between customers’ preferences and parcels regarding the characteristics of the land they are finding. The spatial module is based on several local, proximity, and surround factors for each land use classes, thus computing a continuous map of potential for development based on its local attributes, i.e. estimating the suitability of every small area for customer growth. The result of the spatial module is a map of potential for development based in small areas, where each small area has a preference based on influence factors. The temporal module determines the load curves and consumption per-capita for each type of customer set. The growth obtained from the global module is spread into the small areas with the highest preference over the geographical region, and then converted into electrical load with the temporal module. The result represents the effective development of consumer growth, thus defining the magnitude of the load in a specific area along each time stage.