Implementar el sistema de modelación WEAP como herramienta que determine el impacto del cambio climático sobre la disponibilidad del agua en la cuenca del río Machángara

Abstract

There are different aspects that may impair the quantity and quality of water in a basin, such as population growth, the change of use of soil, climate, etc. However, the greatest concern and most sensitive aspect are the change in the climate that could lead to the increase of extreme events hydro meteorological that could jeopardize the supply of water for different demands.Therefore, this thesis analyzed future climatic scenarios of changes in precipitation and temperature and its impact on the availability of water in a river basin. In the present study, which will raise was analyzing the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) planning model as a tool that will determine the impact of climate change on water availability in the basin of the Machángara River. The implementation of the model consisted of collecting historical data climatological and hydrological; in addition to the cartography of the zone of study so that they served as support for the same obtaining models that can be compared with the current reality. In addition, the software allowed the use of climate scenarios ECHAM A2 and B2, to for results to the changes brought by the variations of climate on water supply, and water managers could define and formulate future strategies for planning and management of water in the short and medium term.Among the results obtained from a cross between the supply and demand for water in the future, is that in the case of demand for human consumption for the months between June and August there will be a deficit of water for your needs.This study could serve as the water managers to take a decision based on a better use of the current and future water resource and its proper administration in the permanent search for a sustainable development of the population of the Machángara River basin.