Prospectiva del uso del suelo y cobertura vegetal en el ordenamiento territorial. Caso cantón Cuenca

Abstract

The objective of this research was to evaluate a methodology for the construction of future scenarios in the years 2010 to 2030 from a multi-temporal analysis of Landsat satellite images of 1991 and 2001 in the Canton Cuenca on a scale 1: 100 thousand; using simulation models cellular automata of Markov Chain (CA_MARKOV) and Land Change Modeler -LCM), based on historical or multitemporal analysis Markov Chain, in coverage and land use in the city. EMC and then a Multi-Objective Assessment - EMO with the technique of Linear Weighted Sum - SLP and Ideal Point Analysis - API. The latter method requires the definition of objectives to determine suitability of soil conservation, agriculture, livestock, forestry and urban, each of these criteria should be based on the factors that make your ability and some morphometric restrictions were also identified as ecosystem. At the end of this research it was proved that the coverage of moor, herbaceous vegetation, woody and native woody vegetation has a loss of 49,066.3 hectares, corresponding to 2% hectares per year; in 1991 had a total of 267,873.7 hectares for 2001 are reduced to 218,807.4 hectares, which indicates that most of the changes occurred in these coverages. The category of grass and crops is the fastest growing presented in 1991 to 22,796.1 hectares and for 2001 is increased to 70,639.8 ha, giving a rate of change of 12% annual, it means that the transition is made to this coverage. The categories of water, bare soil and urban land, had in 1991 a total of 6877.8 ha and in 2001 has 8,100 ha, with an exchange rate of 1.6% annually. The construction of the models in the years 2010 to 2030 have the same trend of decreasing coverage land in approximately 17,000 hectares in this period, decreased native herbaceous, woody and woody vegetation. The increase of pastures and crops in about 41 thousand hectares. Clearly the increase in urban areas within the territory, making it the second strongest cause of change in land use.