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dc.contributor.authorCampozano Parra, Lenin Vladimir
dc.contributor.authorBallari Daniela, Elisabet
dc.contributor.authorMontenegro Ambrosi, Martin Patricio
dc.contributor.authorAviles Añazco, Alex Manuel
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-10T22:13:05Z-
dc.date.available2020-06-10T22:13:05Z-
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.issn22966463
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.00017/full
dc.description
dc.description.abstractDroughts are one of the most spatially extensive disasters that are faced by societies. Despite the urgency to define mitigation strategies, little research has been done regarding droughts related to climate change. The challenges are due to the complexity of droughts and to future precipitation uncertainty from Global Climate Models (GCMs). It is well-known that climate change will have more impact on developing countries. This is the case for Ecuador, which also has the additional challenges of lacking meteorological drought studies covering its three main regions: Coast, Highlands, and Amazon, and of having an intricate orography. Thus, this study assesses the spatio-temporal characteristics of present and future droughts in Ecuador under Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The 10 km dynamically downscaled products (DGCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) was used. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for droughts was calculated pixel-wise for present time 1981–2005 and for future time 2041-2070. The results showed a slightly decreasing trend for future droughts for the whole country, with a larger reduction for moderate droughts, followed by severe and extreme drought events. In the Coast and Highland regions, the intra-annual analysis showed a reduction of moderate and severe future droughts for RCP 4.5 and for RCP 8.5 throughout the year. Extreme droughts showed small and statistically non-significant decreases. In the Amazon region, moderate droughts showed increases from May to October, and decreases for the rest of the year. Additionally, severe drought increases are expected from May to December, and decreases from January to April. Finally, extreme drought increases are expected from January to April, with larger increases in October and November. Thus, in the Amazon, the rainy period showed a decreasing trend of droughts, following the wetter in wet- and drier in dry paradigm. Climate change causes decision-making process and calls for adaptation strategies being more challenging. In this context, our study has contributed to better mapping the space-time evolution of future drought risk in Ecuador, thus providing valuable information for water management and decision making as Ecuador faces climate change. © Copyright © 2020 Campozano, Ballari, Montenegro and Avilés.
dc.language.isoes_ES
dc.sourceFrontiers in Earth Science
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectClimate extremes
dc.subjectForecasting models
dc.subjectSpatial temporal projections
dc.subjectTropical region
dc.subjectWeather research
dc.titleFuture meteorological droughts in Ecuador: decreasing trends and associated spatio temporal features derived from CMIP5 models
dc.typeARTÍCULO
dc.ucuenca.idautor0102677200
dc.ucuenca.idautor1751894716
dc.ucuenca.idautor0106503188
dc.ucuenca.idautor0102247186
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00017
dc.ucuenca.versionVersión publicada
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientounescoamplio05 - Ciencias Físicas, Ciencias Naturales, Matemáticas y Estadísticas
dc.ucuenca.afiliacionCampozano, L., Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN), Quito, Ecuador
dc.ucuenca.afiliacionBallari, E., Universidad del Azuay, Cuenca, Ecuador
dc.ucuenca.afiliacionMontenegro, M., Universidad de Cuenca, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Cuenca, Ecuador
dc.ucuenca.afiliacionAviles, A., Universidad de Cuenca, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Cuenca, Ecuador
dc.ucuenca.correspondenciaCampozano Parra, Lenin Vladimir, lenin.campozano@epn.edu.ec
dc.ucuenca.volumenVolumen 8
dc.ucuenca.indicebibliograficoSCOPUS
dc.ucuenca.factorimpacto1.15
dc.ucuenca.cuartilQ1
dc.ucuenca.numerocitaciones789
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientofrascatiamplio1. Ciencias Naturales y Exactas
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientofrascatiespecifico1.5 Ciencias de la Tierra y el Ambiente
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientofrascatidetallado1.5.8 Ciencias del Medioambiente
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientounescoespecifico052 - Medio Ambiente
dc.ucuenca.areaconocimientounescodetallado0521 - Ciencias Ambientales
dc.ucuenca.urifuentehttps://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science
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