Browsing by Author "Montenegro Ambrosi, Martín Patricio"

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Análisis de modelos del CMIP5 y de índices climáticos extremos en regiones continentales del Ecuador para los escenarios RCP 4.5 y RCP 8.5
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2023-09-04) Durán Yaguana, Pablo José; Rodríguez Guamán, Luis Alexander; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel; Montenegro Ambrosi, Martín Patricio
Extreme precipitation events in Ecuador cause economic losses in several sectors of the population and even loss of human lives. In a context of climate change, understanding the evolution of extreme climate events in the future is indispensable to strengthen adaptation policies and actions aimed at mitigating these effects. The aim of this study was to analyze the behavior of historical precipitation (1981-2005) and changes in future projections over two periods (2016-2040, 2041-2065), for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. To do this, the experiments of two climate models, Eta and assembly WRF, were used to correct the bias. The performance of the models was evaluated through 3 statistical metrics: determination coefficient (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results showed that the best-performing model was the WRF assembly and the most suitable method of bias correction was Delta. In the analysis of historical precipitation, the Amazonia presented the most intense precipitation events with a higher duration and frequency of occurrence. For the future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the periods 2016-2040 and 2041-2065, all evaluated indices indicated an increase in precipitation for the 3 regions of Ecuador, highlighting a greater change in the Ecuadorian Sierra in the second future period, where a significant increase is forecast in days of very intense precipitation. This analysis allows us to understand how the dynamics of precipitation will be in the future, and how its change will affect various aspects of daily life and resource management in the country.
Proyecciones futuras de sequías en regiones climatológicas del Ecuador
(2018-02-23) Montenegro Ambrosi, Martín Patricio; Campozano Parra, Lenin Vladimir
In this study, the variation of future drought patterns in the different regions of Ecuador in the period 2041-2070 was calculated and analyzed with respect to the base period 1981-2005 through the standardized precipitation index. For the analysis the change of the spatial and temporal patterns of the different drought categories in regions of Ecuador was identified, and it was analyzed the most significant spatial and temporal changes that can be made. Produce climate change in the country in the scenario of middle emissions RCP 4.5 and high emissions RCP 8.5. The use of a historical database (1981-2005), the global circulation models GCMs product of CMIP5 and their respective emissions scenarios, and their results, a reduction of scale through WRF for the base period (1981-2005) and future projections for the period 2041-2070 in the emissions scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, tools that allowed analyzing the future variation of the drought around climate change by calculating the standardized precipitation index. The evaluation of drought projections for the 2041-2070 period using the standardized precipitation index allows us to identify a rate of decrease in the frequency of all drought categories throughout Ecuador for the scenario of average emissions RCP 4.5. For the scenario of high emissions RCP 8.5, a more dramatic decrease in the frequency of all the drought categories in Ecuador is expected. The regions in which the most drastic divisions of drought frequency are reduced, both spatial and temporal, are the sierra and the oriente.