El papel de la deuda interna y externa sobre el desarrollo humano. Un estudio para la OCDE y para América Latina y el Caribe

Abstract

The present study aims to estimate the effect of external and internal debt, as well as other socioeconomic variables on human development in the countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and for the group of Latin America and the Caribbean (ALC) for the period 2005-2018. Regarding the methodology, the Generalized Method of Moments is applied for a dynamic panel, proposed by Arellano-Bond. Among the main results, it was obtained that for the internal debt there is significant evidence of an inverted u behavior, reaching an optimal value relation between internal debt and GDP in the OECD member countries of 90%, while for the ALC group it is 29,31%. On the other hand, no significant impact of external debt on human development was found. The variables that most impacted the OECD group were the Gross Fixed Capital Formation and the Labor Participation Rate. While for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean were the variables of Labor participation rate and tax pressure. In conclusion, the level of internal debt contributes to human development instead of external debt, therefore, an effective debt management is suggested to channel it towards productive activities. In addition, it is important that the most indebted countries have better fiscal discipline and a high level of transparency in the management of public funds in the territories, especially in Latin America.