Influencia de las remesas en la inflación de los países de origen de los migrantes

Abstract

The soaring growth of remittances in recent years has allowed this flow of income to be established as an external source of resources that is generally representative of developing countries. Research aimed at determining the impact of remittances on macroeconomic issues is varied, and academic literature has established that these remittances exert upward price pressures because they fuel higher levels of consumer spending. However, there is a gap in empirical research on its influence on the rate of inflation in recipient countries when the universe of study is composed of a set of heterogeneous observations in both the economic and institutional aspects. The purpose of this investigation is to establish whether the generalized price growth is caused, inter alia, by the sending of remittances. From the economic determinants frequently used, inflation was modeled including institutional variables. To do this we applied methods of instrumental econometric estimation of static and dynamic, the latter through the application of the estimator of differences proposed by ArellanoBond estimator system structured by Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond, with the objective of establishing the differences when the nature regressive inflation is not contemplated. The data cover 22 countries in the European Union, 19 in Latin America and 4 countries designated as economies of interest for the period between 2002 and 2018. The results contrast with the hypothesis raised about the compensatory role of remittances, showing that these resources generate inflation in the recipient countries, with a more pronounced effect in the long term. In addition, it was found that the growth of the monetary base and trade openness have a positive and significant effect, while the current account is determinant, but maintains an inverse relationship. Finally, institutional factors, despite their non-influence on inflation, improve the adjustment of the model substantially.