Efectos del ciclo económico en el crédito comercial y bancario: caso aplicado a las pymes ecuatorianas durante el periodo 2008-2019

Abstract

This article aims to study the effects of the economic cycle on trade and bank credit, and also seeks to determine the relationship between these two credits, in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ecuador. First, when analyzing the economic cycle of Ecuador during the period 2008 - 2019 through the application of the modified HP filter, the results indicate a procyclical relationship between GDP, trade credit and bank credit. Second, when using the fixed effects estimator with instrumental variables, a substitute relationship is found between trade credit and bank credit, and this relationship persists. All company factors considered are found to be significant and relevant for SMEs. Finally, in a comparison with large companies, it is found that the main relationships are maintained. Therefore, it is concluded that commercial credit is important for SMEs and acts as a savior, since less access to bank credit, trade credit operates more dynamically in companies, especially if they are young companies. However, large companies benefit to a greater extent from trade and bank credit. The report of this research suggests implementing measures that facilitate access to credit for companies, especially in times of economic contraction.