Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/34242
Título : | A causal flow approach for the evaluation of global climate models |
Autor: | Vazquez Patiño, Angel Oswaldo Campozano Parra, Lenin Vladimir Mendoza Siguenza, Daniel Emilio Samaniego Alvarado, Esteban Patricio |
Correspondencia: | Vazquez Patiño, Angel Oswaldo, angel.vazquezp@ucuenca.edu.ec |
Palabras clave : | Granger causality Causal comparison Causal links Causal strength Climate model evaluation Climate networks Directed networks Transfer flows |
Área de conocimiento FRASCATI amplio: | 2. Ingeniería y Tecnología |
Área de conocimiento FRASCATI detallado: | 2.7.1 Ingeniería Ambiental y Geológica |
Área de conocimiento FRASCATI específico: | 2.7 Ingeniería del Medio Ambiente |
Área de conocimiento UNESCO amplio: | 05 - Ciencias Físicas, Ciencias Naturales, Matemáticas y Estadísticas |
ÁArea de conocimiento UNESCO detallado: | 0521 - Ciencias Ambientales |
Área de conocimiento UNESCO específico: | 052 - Medio Ambiente |
Fecha de publicación : | 2020 |
Fecha de fin de embargo: | 7-may-2050 |
Volumen: | Volumen 40, número 10 |
Fuente: | International Journal of Climatology |
metadata.dc.identifier.doi: | 10.1002/joc.6470 |
Tipo: | ARTÍCULO |
Abstract: | © 2020 Royal Meteorological Society Global climate models (GCMs) are generally used to forecast weather, understand the present climate, and project climate change. Their reliability usually rests on their capability to represent climatic processes, and most evaluations directly measure the spatiotemporal agreement of scalar climate variables. However, climate naturally involves complex interactions that are hard to infer and, therefore, difficult to evaluate. Climate networks (CNs) have been used to infer flows of mass and energy in the complex climate system. Here, an Evaluation of Models by Causal Flows (EMCaF) is proposed. EMCaF focuses on the assessment of properties about mass and energy flows in the CNs derived from GCMs. First, causal CNs are inferred from GCMs, and then the capabilities to reproduce characteristic transfer flows are assessed with reference models. A more in-depth feature is the possibility to assess how climate change disturbs CNs properties. In addition to the quantitative difference between modelled and observed values taken into account in standard evaluations, the EMCaF approach aims to assess the weaknesses and strengths of GCMs to represent climate mechanisms and processes that couple different components of the climate system. The comparison of models through this approach allows having complimentary feedback on model evaluations to understand possible causes of errors and enable a judgement based on processes. The approach is illustrated by evaluating one GCM and subsequently assessing changes of its CNs under future climate projections. Results show that known climatic patterns are assimilated and that causal strength patterns are likely to agree with the wind magnitude as a transfer factor. Significative issues are then explored, showing the capabilities of the approach and allowing understand fundamental structures in transport flows, compare their properties, and assess changes in the future. Different alternatives and considerations in each step of the approach are discussed to expand its applicability. |
Resumen : | © 2020 Royal Meteorological Society Global climate models (GCMs) are generally used to forecast weather, understand the present climate, and project climate change. Their reliability usually rests on their capability to represent climatic processes, and most evaluations directly measure the spatiotemporal agreement of scalar climate variables. However, climate naturally involves complex interactions that are hard to infer and, therefore, difficult to evaluate. Climate networks (CNs) have been used to infer flows of mass and energy in the complex climate system. Here, an Evaluation of Models by Causal Flows (EMCaF) is proposed. EMCaF focuses on the assessment of properties about mass and energy flows in the CNs derived from GCMs. First, causal CNs are inferred from GCMs, and then the capabilities to reproduce characteristic transfer flows are assessed with reference models. A more in-depth feature is the possibility to assess how climate change disturbs CNs properties. In addition to the quantitative difference between modelled and observed values taken into account in standard evaluations, the EMCaF approach aims to assess the weaknesses and strengths of GCMs to represent climate mechanisms and processes that couple different components of the climate system. The comparison of models through this approach allows having complimentary feedback on model evaluations to understand possible causes of errors and enable a judgement based on processes. The approach is illustrated by evaluating one GCM and subsequently assessing changes of its CNs under future climate projections. Results show that known climatic patterns are assimilated and that causal strength patterns are likely to agree with the wind magnitude as a transfer factor. Significative issues are then explored, showing the capabilities of the approach and allowing understand fundamental structures in transport flows, compare their properties, and assess changes in the future. Different alternatives and considerations in each step of the approach are discussed to expand its applicability. |
URI : | https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85078012173&origin=inward&txGid=f17d83cf22c069844d707a66adbd992d |
URI Fuente: | https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ |
ISSN : | 0899-8418 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos
|
Los ítems de DSpace están protegidos por copyright, con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.