Lavado de dinero en Ecuador. Estimación de su magnitud y análisis de su repercusión en la economía

Abstract

The objective of this research is to estimate the amount of money circulating in banks accounts, resulting from money laundering, for Ecuador. For this, we used a panel data from the 24 provinces of Ecuador for the period 2014-2017. This document was based on the demand approach for cash deposits on current accounts (CDA). This approach considers three components: legal structure, underground economy and money laundering that includes crimes such as drug dealing, human trafficking, reception and extortion (Racketeering). Based on the econometric tools used in this study, the regression model of Prais-Winsten with standard errors corrected by panel was estimated. In order to reflect the Ecuadorian reality, the underemployment rate and the employment rate in the informal sector were used, which resulted in a better adjustment. With this modification, we obtained that on average from 2014 to 2017 money laundering through current accounts in Ecuador is 4.65% of real GDP, this corresponds to $ 4130 million of current dollars. In addition, how resulted, it was found that the relationship between the ratio of cash deposits in current account and the probability of detection of unusual transactions is contrary to that expected in the theory. The results show that it is necessary to reinforce anti-laundering laws in the provinces near the maritime zone. Finally, no short-term relationship was found between the crime rates and the amount of money laundering in terms of the provincial GDP.