Incertidumbre en los estudios hidrológicos de cuencas de montaña debida a la extensión de la muestra de datos: aplicación a las cuencas de los ríos Yanuncay, Tomebamba y Mazar

Abstract

The importance of taking into account the uncertainty in hydrological studies has taken great relevance in recent years due to its influence on the results of the estimations, either of indices or hydrological extremes. For this reason, the adequate analysis of the uncertainty will make it possible to take appropriate decisions when allocating the results for research and environmental programs and for the design of hydraulic works. The objective of this project was to analyze the uncertainty generated by the effect of having a large data period or not. This analysis was carried out in the basins of the Tomebamba, Yanuncay and Mazar rivers, sub-basins of the Paute River, from which measurements of flows recorded from the 1970s to the year 1992 were obtained by the INAMHI and ETAPA EP institutions of the city of Cuenca. A study of time series was executed, obtaining hydrological statistical indices for each series. As a result, flow distributions were obtained that indicate the behavior of the statistical indices according to the time series for different confidence intervals, which allowed to quantify the uncertainty generated in the estimates for the three rivers. The two Mountain Rivers (Yanuncay and Tomebamba) had a more dispersed behavior in terms of their distribution of hydrological indices for the established time series, while the forest river (Mazar) presented a more homogeneous distribution based on the established time series.