Los Factores financieros y sociodemográficos que influyen en el sobre-endeudamiento de los hogares ecuatorianos para el año 2014

Abstract

The use of credit by households has become a common way to accumulate assets or satisfy individual´s consumer demand. As households use more and more loans, the financial commitments to be paid will be greater; consequently, many households might be facing problems in their commitment payments in case of a negative shock hit their monthly incomes. The aim of the current paper is to determinate the variables that influence in the likelihood of being over-indebted at the household level. To make it possible, this paper will use Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (ECV) 2013-2014 as data set. In terms of econometric models, the current paper will perform Logit and Probit models with the desire of getting the variables which best indicate the conditions of being over-indebted. The influence of the variables will be measured by using marginal effects with its respective p-value, and the odds ratio in the case of logit model. Moreover, the overall credit amount will be divided into consumption and mortgage credit to get a better idea of how different the effect of the variables are on these two kind of credits. The outcomes show that the main determinants of being over-indebted are household incomes, household worth assets, the amount of debt to be paid, household-head´s gender, household-head´s age, employment, holding mortgage debt and credit card, and number of members in the household.