Desarrollo de un modelo de pronóstico de sequías para proyectos de reforestación con especies forestales cedro y gañal - aplicación para la zona de Llaviuco y Mazán, parte alta de la cuenca del río Paute

Abstract

Droughts are a climatological phenomenon that have an impact on the environmental and socioeconomic development of a region. Currently, the Ecuadorian national government promotes reforestation programs; however, if a drought event takes place during the first stages of the programs the whole process could fail. For this reason, it is important to do research on drought forecasting as to be able to plan and manage a well-suited reforestation program. The aim of this study is to develop a drought forecasting model for reforestation projects with species Cedrela montana and Oreocallis grandiflora. The study area was Llaviuco and Mazán forests at the El Cajas National Park. The model was developed using Markov chains. For this, rainfall data from the Piscícola Chirimachay and Sayausí Matadero pluviographic stations were used. At the same time, it was analyzed the resistance of the species exposed to four drought intensities: normal, moderate, severe and extreme. Subsequently, an early warning system based on both the drought forecast and the response of the species for decision-making in restoration projects was designed. The results showed that: i) based on the drought forecast matrix, when an extreme event occurs, the event remains throughout the whole process ii) in an extreme event, there is a belated germination process and a fewer number of germinated species, iii) for the two studied species, the traffic lights show that less than 50% of the seeds germinate in conditions of extreme drought. This study could be useful for institutions in charge of restoration and environmental management programs.