Relación entre el gasto público y el crecimiento económico. Un estudio empírico para los países de la comunidad andina para el periodo 1985 - 2015

Abstract

This research analyzes the relationship between public spending and economic growth for the countries of the Andean Community through a model of vector autoregressions (VARS), both individually for each country as well as in panel data (PVAR); making use of the World Bank's database in real terms with base year 2010. In front of the contradictions of the aforementioned relationship there are two theories; the theory of Wagner and the Keynes, where the first establishes that the economic growth due to the expansion of the public sector as opposed to the theory of Keynes, however in the economic literature there have been various interpretations of the theory of Wagner, referring to the five authors: Peacock & Wiseman (P&W), Goffman, Mann, Musgrave and Gupta whose performances have had greater relevance in the economic sphere and in function of the functional form raised by these authors develops research. The results of the VAR model applied to each country has found empirical evidence in favor of the theory of Keynes to Bolivia under the concept of Mann and Musgrave and bidirectionality for others, in the case of Colombia is dominated by the Keynesian theory, Ecuador has found evidence in favor of Wagner except for the P&W model who shows no evidence of any of the theories, finally to the case of Peru, there is no evidence in favor of any of the theories. The results of panel data show empirical evidence in favor of the law of Wagner, these results imply that the implementation of Keynesian policies do not spur economic growth in developing countries