Evaluación de modelos de regresión para predicción de sequías en la microcuenca del río Chulco utilizando el índice estandarizado de precipitación-evapotranspiración (SPEI) y predictores climáticos

Abstract

Drought as an extreme phenomenon of water scarcity attracts the interest to investigate this event, since the negative impacts they cause in an area or region are significant and therefore necessary to identify them in advance, to plan the respective preventive and mitigation measures. For this reason, this research project aims to evaluate and predict droughts in the Chulco river micro basin and to propose measures for the sustainable use of water for the different activities that are carried out in the areas surrounding its study. The applied methodology for the evaluation of droughts will be the Standardized Index of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) and its prediction through the Multiple Regression Models, with the use of climatic predictors. The results show that prediction models generated with the best forecasts in the months of January and September using the Forward and Stepwise methods for selection of climate predictors. This research could serve as a basis for the Machángara River Watershed Council to take decisions to avoid incidents such as forest burning and the development of strategies for rationing water resources in times of drought by Etapa in the city.