Prospectiva estratégica: variables, stakeholders y escenarios para la evaluación y acreditación

Abstract

Strategic prospective is a methodology which keeps the support of the UNESCO , its purpose is to determine future scenarios with a relative probability of occurrence , for this reason , this tool has been considered to check the trend of the evaluation and accreditation process , based on the variables and actors that have an incidence in the macro process of learning ; which leads to catalyze the quality of higher education in Ecuador . In this French origin methodology, three Research Laboratory in Foresight, Strategy and Organization (LIPSOR ) softwares are used. The first system called MICMAC allows to analyze structurally 37 variables identified in the system of higher education, factors that are entered into matrices and provide visual information through planes of influence and dependence, in order to typify the different components. The IES are located in a transition period , this provokes several interested parties or stakeholders , influencing directly or indirectly from its macro or microenvironment , these elements are entered into the following system called MACTOR , software in which all actors involved in this research are processed and by convergences and divergences graphics are proceed to analyze them. Finally with the results of the previous two tools, simple probabilities , positive and negative conditionals are posed, which when transferred to SMIC PROB EXPERT software , generate based on the histogram of extremums , a graph which shows the different types of IES future scenarios, the system of higher education.