Predicción de caudales en la cabecera de la cuenca del Paute mediante el modelo DBM

Abstract

The Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) model was used in conjunction with the Kalman filter (as a data assimilation technique), to predict the discharge from a sub-catchment located in the upper part of the Paute basin. The results showed that this conjunctive use of the DBM model and the Kalman filter produced better predictions of the discharge in the study site, as compared to the solely use of the DBM model; indeed, the use of the Kalman filter provided an estimate of the uncertainty associated to the use of the DBM model for forecasting purposes. These results not only motivate the future use of data mining techniques for discharge forecasting, but also encourage the use of the current tool for both, prediction as well as forecasting extreme events on Andean catchments.