Simplificación del proceso complejo de reducción de escala de los modelos climáticos globales por medio de la aplicación web SDW

Abstract

The generation of climate change scenarios is based on the results of global climate models (GCM), which because of their low resolution require the use of downscaling techniques to assess the impact at local scale. Of the downscaling techniques, based either on the use of regional climate models or statistical methods defining the statistical relationship between synoptic climate variables and observations, previous studies revealed that statistical approaches most accurately predict future climate variables in mountainous areas, such as the Andes mountain range. To standardize and facilitate the assessment of the uncertainty between GCM models of future climate, greenhouse gas scenarios, and downscaling techniques, a versatile tool would be most appropriate and helpful. This paper presents the development, implementation and use of a web application that integrates all the steps in downscaling, it is from the search, analysis and storage of data, the selection, calibration and validation of models, up to downscaled outputs. The presented tool could easily be linked to a decision support system for climate change adaptation.